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The NFL`s year of the favorite - football betting
Professional gamblers tell you when it comes to betting pro football, underdogs are the only way to go.
That sure wasn't the case in 2005, though. Favorites in the NFL went 57.7 percent against the spread.
This is only the second time favorites have finished above 53 percent during the past 20 years, according to Ken White, chief oddsmaker and president of Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
There was a stretch where bookmakers had seven straight losing NFL weekends, longest in recent memory.
Bob Scucci, race and sports book director at the Stardust hotel, said his place didn't turn a profit in the NFL this season.
Some Las Vegas sports book directors were called into their corporate bosses offices and asked to explain why the NFL season was going so bad.
The simple explanation is recreational gamblers, the so-called public, bet and parlay favorites. That certainly was the case, this season with the chalk.
"It got to the point where people actually stopped handicapping", said Rich Dressler, sportsbook manager at the Imperial Palace hotel. "They just came up and bet a flat dollar amount on every favorite knowing they were going to win.
And they did win, especially on road favorites, which went 48-30-4 (61.5 percent)".
"Short favorites on the road have been annihilating us", Scucci said during a recent radio interview.
The question is was this just an aberration season, or were linesmakers slow to adjust to changing trends such as less parity in the NFL?
I've been very happy that no one has really pointed a finger at me, said White, whose company supplies the betting number to many of Nevada's sportsbooks. They see the professionals just take 7 ½. The public is laying the 7, and the favorite is winning by 10 every week and everyone is teasing (betting teasers).
Eighty percent of the games have been teased on both sides. So it's not like it's a bad line when the favorite is covering by three touchdowns. They're just barely covering.
White has cautioned shell-shocked bookmakers not to over-adjust their numbers. The Jaguars-Patriots playoff matchup is an example this week. Bookmakers anticipate the public to be on the Patriots. The line opened Patriots -7 or 7 ½. The number currently is at 7 ½ or 8. If the line reaches 9, bookmakers suspect sharps will jump in and bet the Jaguars.
If you make the favorite too high, the professionals will come in on the underdog every time, White said
It's all about numbers when it comes to booking. The theoretical hold percentage on a football game is 4.55 percent, which isn't a guaranteed win for the house, especially compared to slot machines. Bookmakers have enjoyed good football seasons prior to last year. The house cleaned up on last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Patriots.
So maybe it's just the law of averages catching up.
"You take the last 10 seasons, throw them in the pot, and we're probably where we should be", said John Avello, sports book director at Wynn hotel. A lot of people don't remember the good seasons. They just want to talk about the current ones.
One Las Vegas sportsbook director said that for years big pit (blackjack, dice, roulette) players would lose huge amounts betting NFL games. This year, for the first time, they won because favorites did so well.
The nightmare question for bookmakers is how much could they lose if every favorite covered? That question was asked a few times this season.
"I think you'll see it change back next year", White said. "You'll see a lot of bad teams like San Francisco improved just because of the experience they went through this season".
Bookmakers can only hope so.
Source: BonusGambler.com Editors' Choice
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