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Betting National Football League Playoffs
The National Football League (NFL) playoffs begin this weekend, but bettors and odd-makers won't notice any real difference between regular season and postseason spreads. Change won't happen for at least another week. "There is not much difference between the opening round of the NFL playoffs and the regular season", explained odd maker Cesar Robaina.
"The real difference comes the next week, in the second round of the playoffs when the four teams that earned opening round byes begin play", continued Robaina. "Yes, we'll pump up the favorites a little. For instance, in the second round you'll see the Colts playing the worst surviving team. That team not only will have played an extra game, but also will have to travel to Indianapolis. So it really will be up against it. The number on that game will be inflated as much as I think is reasonable. The four teams that get byes really get their lines jacked up".
So, while it's true that this is just about the time of year when the tasseled Gucci loafer crowd begins to show some interest in the NFL, investing a wrinkled sawbuck at the windows instead of on a bottle of Chardonnay, that generally isn't enough to sway experienced odd makers.
"Sure the public gets more involved, said Robaina. But even though the games are isolated, the interest isn't keen enough that we have to make any significant changes yet. Robaina pointed out that greater participation by the public usually translates to more money on the favorite.
Another factor weighing against any significant opening week move to the favorite is the widely preached and often-mocked reality that any team can beat any other on any given Sunday. So long as the Saints can knock off the Panthers in Charlotte, the 49ers can upset the Buccaneers, the Chargers are able to topple the Colts in Indianapolis, the Patriots in New England and the Redskins in Washington but lose to the Dolphins at home--events that actually took place this season--odds makers probably will demonstrate a degree of caution when it comes to deviating from point spread orthodoxy.
Take a look at last year when the Seahawks, minus four, were eliminated at home by the Rams, 27-20; the Packers, minus six, were bounced from the playoffs at home by the Vikings, 31-17; and the Chargers, minus six-and-a 1/2, were ousted in San Diego by the Jets, 20-17.
The year before, the Colts, minus six, were embarrassed by the Jets in the opening round of the playoffs in Indianapolis, 41-0. The Packers, a modest six-and-a 1/2-point favorite when the mystique of Lambeau Field still meant something, were beaten by the Falcons, 27-7.
The most humiliating recent playoff loss by a favorite though has to be Denver's 30-27 home defeat to Jacksonville in 1996. The Broncos were a 14-point favorite over the Jaguars in that game.
"The deeper we get into the playoffs, the more the public gets involved", said Robaina. "But there's nothing like the Super Bowl where we have enough public action that it affects lines and prices". For example, the Super Bowl money line never matches the point spread because the public likes to take the underdog on the money line. We can't do that during the playoffs because there isn't enough public volume. The 'wise' guys would find the error and pound it.
As for totals, they're much more a function of the teams, the match up and the weather than any other factors affecting NFL postseason play. Still, you can expect a decrease of at least a point or two (and sometimes more) from the number that a similar match up might produce during the regular season. Take the Jets and Chargers, who met twice in always-pleasant San Diego last year. The total for their September encounter was 47; it was 42 1/2 for their January meeting.
When the Dolphins and Colts met in chilly Indianapolis during the 12th week of the 2000 NFL season, the spread for that game was 43. When they hooked up just five weeks later in warm and sunny Miami, the spread was down two ticks, to 41. Incidentally, both games went under the total.
So while it's true that teams do tend to play a bit more conservatively during the playoffs, don't mistake the NFL for the NBA, where regular season totals may recede by as much as 10 points during the playoffs.
Source: BonusGambler.com Editors' Choice
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